Bass Curves for the Diffusion of Innovations
http://www.useit.com/alertbox/basscurves.html

Nielsen, Jakob
Alertbox
1995

Abstract:

Uptake of hypertext is likely to happen somewhat differently than the standard Bass curve. First, the market for hypertext use is highly dependent on the number of people who have computers with certain minimum capabilities (typically at least a graphical user interface; for WWW use it is also necessary to have Internet access). Second, the influence of other hypertext users is almost certainly not linear.